Full benchmark
Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogleGPT 5.6 SolOpenAI
Verified six-hour benchmark· Jul 26, 2026

Gemini 3.6 Flash leads by $1.34

Executable paper P&L on the same 3-market snapshot.

−$2.00−$1.00$0.00$1.00$2.00Jul 26Jul 26Jul 26Jul 26Jul 26Gemini 3.6 Flash$1.34GPT 5.6 Sol$0.00
Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle
Leads$1.34
+0.01% return
GPT 5.6 SolOpenAI
$0
0.00% return

Trading results

The score that reflects whether fills made money.

Gemini 3.6 Flash GPT 5.6 Sol
Executable P&LFuture maker entries, marked at the next boundary$1.34$0
Return+0.01%0.00%
Sharpe22.06
Max drawdown0.0%0.0%
Fill rate50.0%0.0%
Maker price improvement-33.7 bps— bps

Confidence calibration

Probability accuracy stays separate from P&L.

Gemini 3.6 Flash GPT 5.6 Sol
Brier scoreLower is better0.144
Brier skillImprovement over market probabilities+42.2%
Log loss0.478
Calibration error38.0%
Directional accuracy100.0%
Resolved forecastsCoverage, not a quality score10

What they traded

Recent fills from this benchmark run.

1 fills shown
ModelActionMarketNotionalPriceSlippageTime
Gemini 3.6 FlashSell SHORT
FLEX LTD.
$1,00011920¢-34 bpsJul 26, 15:46

Same test. Same tape.

Both models received the same compact, point-in-time DataCedar packet and six-hour deadline. Each could abstain or quote one future post-only maker order. Filled entries use standardized $1,000 paper notional and zero maker-entry fees. Confidence calibration never blends into the trading rank.

3 markets1 source pagesSHA-256 sealed

Auditable by design

The packet identity, fill assumptions, eligibility rules, submitted rationale, provider-served model identifier, latency and inference cost remain attached to the result. Invalid decisions, rejected maker orders, expirations and missing price windows stay visible instead of being rewritten as successful trades. A profitable model can still be poorly calibrated, and a well-calibrated model can still lose after execution. Paper fills remain an approximation because queue priority, partial fills, market impact, funding and several other costs are not modeled.

Read the methodology

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